ISBN: 3540649816
TITLE: Floods and Landslides
AUTHOR: Casale, Riccardo; Margottini, Claudio (Eds.)
TOC:

Part I Introduction - Overview, Technical Papers 1
Landslide Hazard - A Conceptual Approach in Risk Viewpoint 3
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 The Hazard's Characteristics 5
1.2.1 Location 5
1.2.2 Magnitude 6
1.2.3 Measuring Speeds 8
1.2.4 The Prompting Concept 10
1.2.5 Occurrence 11
1.3 Vulnerability to Landslides 12
1.4 The Risk 14
1.4.1 Component Defining Landslide Risk 14
1.4.2 Mapping over Extended Areas 14
1.4.3 Mapping on a Regional Basis 16
1.5 Conclusion 17
References 17
2 Flood Hazard Assessment and Mitigation 19
2.1 Introduction 19
2.2 General Characteristics of Floods 20
2.2.1 A Tentative Typology of European Flood Hazards 22
2.3 Current Approach for Estimation of Flood Risk 23
2.3.1 Regional Floods Frequency Analysis 24
2.3.2 Flood Risk Estimation by Using Rainfall-Runoff Models 24
2.4 Defence Against Floods 29
2.4.1 Flood Control Measures 29
2.4.2 Flood Proofing 31
2.4.3 Planning Control 32
2.4.4 Emergency Plans 32
2.4.5 Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems 32
References 37
3 The Recognition of Landslides 39
3.1 Introduction 39
3.2 Classification of Landslides Proposed by the TESLEC Project 39
References 44
4 Climate Change Impact on Frequency and Distribution of Natural Extreme Events: an Overview 45
4.1 Introduction 45
4.1.1 External Forcings 47
4.1.2 Internal Forcings 49
4.1.3 Climate of the Last 1000 Years 50
4.2 Impacts of Climate Change 52
4.2.1 Impacts on Water Cycle 53
4.2.2 Impacts on Extreme Events 54
4.2.3 Impacts on Slopes 56
4.3 Case Studies 56
4.3.1 Landslides 57
4.3.2 Floods and Droughts 58
4.3.3 Climatic Change and Impacts in the Po River Basin Between 1450 and 1650 60
4.4 Conclusions 63
References 64
Part II Tools and Methodology 67
5 Dendrogeomorphology in Landslide Analysis 69
5.1 Introduction 69
5.2 Kind of Investigable Landslides and Limitations 69
5.3 Effects of Landslide on Trees 69
5.3.1 Trees' Inclination 70
5.3.2 Effects on the Root System 72
5.3.3 Corrasion Scar 72
5.3.4 Nudation 73
5.4 Examples of Dendrogeomorphological Landslide Analysis in Italy 73
5.4.1 Sampling and Methodology 74
5.4.2 Temporal Analysis 76
5.4.3 Spatial Analysis 76
5.4.4 Correlation Between Growth Anomalies Events and Geological Causes 79
References 80
6 Rainfall and Flow Forecasting Using Weather Radar 83
6.1 Introduction 83
6.2 Short-Term Precipitation Forecasting 83
6.2.1 Introduction 84
6.2.2 Field Advection Methods 84
6.2.3 Feature Tracking Methods 86
6.2.4 Man/Machine Interface Methods 86
6.2.5 Numerical Weather Predition Models 88
6.2.6 Simple Cloud Models 88
6.2.7 Limits of Predictability 91
6.3 Flow Forecasting 91
6.3.1 Rainfall Forecasts for Flood Forecasting 91
6.3.2 Distributed Radar Grid Square Flow Forecasting Models 93
6.4 The Way Forward 97
Acknowledgements 98
References 98
7 Numerical Modelling Techniques as Predictive Tools of Ground Instability 101
7.1 Introduction 101
7.2 Slope Stability Evaluation 101
7.3 Limit Equilibrium Methods 102
7.4 Deformation Analyses 105
7.5 Analytical Studies 106
7.5.1 Scope of Work 106
7.5.2 Presentation of Results 106
7.6 Evaluaton of Results 108
7.6.1 Comparisons Between Different Methods of Analysis 108
7.6.2 Comparisons Between Different Software 110
7.6.3 Code Validations Against Case Studies 111
7.6.4 The Pieria Landslide Case History 113
7.6.5 The Civita di Bagnoregio Case History 113
References 118
8 New Applications of Monitoring Networks, Multipurpose, Cost/Benefits, Management 119
8.1 New Meteorology 119
8.2 Services Rate 120
9 The Importance and the Problems of Cartography - An Example 125
9.1 The Authors of the Research 125
9.2 Presentation of the Studied Area 125
9.3 The Cartography 125
9.4 The Flood Hazards and the Cartography of Prone Areas 126
9.4.1 The Cartography of the Flood Extension of Large Rivers 126
9.4.2 The Cartography of Storm Flow Hazards 127
9.5 Map of the Slopes and Derived Maps 128
9.6 Map with Protection Zones of Water Catchments 130
9.7 Map of the Karstic Dangers 130
9.8 Map of the Sewage Possibilities 130
9.9 Map of the Fertility of Soils 131
9.10 Map of the Summits 132
9.11 A Synthetic Map with All the Physical Constraints 132
References 132
10 From Meteorological Modelling to Flood Forecasting and the Management of Emergencies 133
10.1 Introduction 133
10.2 Precipitation Data Acquisition Systems 133
10.3 The Predictability of Hydro-Meteorological Events 135
10.4 The Predictability of Flood Events 136
10.5 Factors Contributing to the Management of Flood Events 137
10.6 Concluding Remarks 145
References 146
11 Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems: Perspectives and Prospects 147
11.1 Introduction 147
11.2 Hydrological Models for Flood Forecasting 147
11.2.1 Introduction 147
11.2.2 Rainfall-Runoff Models 148
11.2.3 Channel Flow Routing Models 161
11.2.4 Snowmelt Models 165
11.3 Real-Time Updating Procedures 168
11.3.1 Introduction 168
11.3.2 State Updating 169
11.3.3 Error Predictors 172
11.4 Spatial Variability and Weather Radar 175
11.4.1 Introduction 175
11.4.2 Radar Calibration 176
11.4.3 Radar Rainfall Forecasting 178
11.5. Integrated Flood Forecasting Systems 179
11.5.1 The RFFS 179
11.5.2 Other Systems in the UK 184
11.6 Towards More Distributed Models? 185
11.7. Future Opportunities 186
Acknowledgements 187
References 187
12 Relationships Between Environment and Man in Terms of Landslide Induced Risk 191
References 195
Part III Management and Socio-Economic Aspects 197
13 Innovative Approaches to Integrated Floodplain Management 199
13.1 Introduction and Problem Statement 199
13.2 Background and Methodology 200
13.3 Land Use Management and Flood Impacts 204
13.3.1 Land Use Controls and Flood Policy 204
13.3.2 Assessment of Land Use Controls in Floodplain Management 205
13.3.3 Ex-post Evaluation of Land Use Controls 206
13.3.4 Urban Growth Modeling in Setbal 207
13.4 Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modelling 212
13.4.1 Lumped and Distributed Modelling 212
13.4.2 Coupling GIS with Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modelling 214
13.5 Environmental Impacts of Flood Control Measures 216
13.5.1 Relevance of Environmental Considerations 216
13.5.2 Environmental Impacts of Structural Measures 217
13.6 Conclusions and Recommendations 220
Acknowledgements 221
References 221
14 The Economical Consequences of Floods and Landslides 223
14.1 Introduction 223
14.2 General Aspects 223
14.3 Parameters Influencing Damage by Category of Elements at Risk 228
14.3.1 Residential Buildings 228
14.3.2 Commercial Buildings 229
14.3.3 Business Interruption 230
14.3.4 Theatres 230
14.3.5 Factory Buildings 230
14.3.6 Plants and Industries 231
14.3.7 Civil Engineering Projects 238
14.4 Examples of Flood Assessments 239
14.4.1 Flood Exposure in Sydney, Australia 240
14.4.2 Flood Exposure in the Rhine Valley, Germany, South of Mainz 241
14.5 Landslides 242
14.6 Concluding Remarks 243
References 244
15 Socio-Economic Perspective of Developing Country Megacities Vulnerable to Flood and Landslide Hazards 245
15.1 Introduction 245
15.2 Analysis of the Phenomena of Megacities 245
15.3 Identification of the Socio-Economic Consequences of Hazard Impact 247
15.3.1 Effects of Natural Hazards on Cities 247
15.3.2 Vulnerability of Physical Infrastructure 249
15.3.3 Vulnerability of Economic Assets 250
15.3.4 Human Dimensions in Disasters 252
15.4 Discussion of Possibilities for Mitigation of Risk 255
15.4.1 Phases of a Disaster Event 255
15.4.2 Strategy for Action 257
15.4.3 Mitigation of Risk 258
15.4.4 The Scientists Contribution 259
References 260
16 The Potentialities of a Risk Disaggregation Between Vulnerability and Hazard: Example of a Relative Stability Induced for Flooding Risk Alleviation 261
16.1 Introduction 261
16.2 Ecomonical or Social Target? 261
16.3 A Manageable Definition of the Risk, Disaggregating Vulnerability and Hazard 262
16.4 The Crossed Map as a Basic Tool for Negotiation 262
16.5 A  Relevant Application Case: The Flood Hazards 263
16.6 The Relative Stability of Such Risk Maps 263
16.7 An Example of Model Exploiting these Concepts: Inondabilite 263
16.7.1 A Preliminary: The Synthesis Hydrological Model QdF as Basic Tool 263
16.7.2 An Interfacable Definition of the Vulnerability Toward Floods 265
16.7.3 The Principle of the Transformation Needed to be Able to Cross and to Map 266
16.7.4 The Local Unicity of the Variable TOP Displaying Such Vulnerability 266
16.7.5 The Local Unicity of the Variable TAL as Representative of the Local Flooding Regime 270
16.7.6 The Synthesis Variable for Risk, Delta: Definition, Use, Mapping and Relative Stability 271
16.7.7 The Management Exploitation of the Risk Variable Delta 274
16.8 An Encouraging Conclusion 275
Acknowledgements 277
References 277
Part IV Case Studies 279
17 Landslide Hazard Investigations in the Dolomites (Italy): The Case Study of Cortina d'Ampezzo 281
17.1 Introduction 281
17.2 Landslides in the Dolomites 282
17.3 Landslide Investigations in the Dolomites 283
17.4 Landslide Hazard Investigations in the Area of Cortina d'Ampezzo 284
17.4.1 Introduction 284
17.4.2 Geological and Geomorphological Setting 285
17.4.3 Landslide Causes 287
17.4.4 Landslide Types and Temporal Distribution 289
17.4.5 The Study of the Active Landslides 291
17.5 Conclusions 293
References 294
18 Monitoring and Warning Systems: Methodological Approach and Case Studies 295
18.1 Introduction 295
18.2 Methodological Aspects 295
18.3 Technical Aspects 296
18.3.1 Kinematic Parameters 296
18.3.2 Hydrological Parameters 297
18.3.3 Environmental Parameters 297
18.4 Case Studies 298
18.4.1 The Ru Delle Roe Landslide 298
18.4.2 The Tessina Landslide 299
18.4.3 The Stalin-Alver Landslide 301
References 303
19 Mass Movements in Austria 305
19.1 Introduction 305
19.2 Dobratsch (Villacher Alpe) Landslide 306
19.3 Bad Goisern - Zwerchwand Rockfall/Topple and Stambach Mud Slide 308
19.4 Kfels Landslide 309
19.4.1 Chronology 311
19.4.2 Kfels Pumice 311
19.5 Conclusions 312
References 313
20 Landslides and Precipitation: the Event of 4-6th November 1994 in the Piemonte Region, North Italy 315
20.1 Introduction 315
20.2 Geology and Topography of the Region 315
20.3 Precipitation Data 317
20.4 Landslides 317
20.5 Threshold Rainfall Heights 320
20.6 Mudflows - A Preliminary Geotechnical Evaluation 321
20.7 Block Slides - A Preliminary Geotechnical Evaluation 322
20.8 UDEC Modelling of a Typical Block Slide 323
20.8.1 Model Geometry - Input Parameters 323
20.8.2 Principal Results 324
20.9. Summary - Conclusions 325
References 326
21 Evaluation of Radar and Panchromatic Imagery for the Study of Flood and Landslide Events in Piemonte, Italy, November 1994 327
21.1 Introduction 327
21.2 Methodology 327
21.2.1 Preliminary Evaluation of Image Suitability 328
21.2.2 Test Site A: Landslide Identification in the Langhe Hills 328
21.2.3 Test Site B: Flood Mapping in the Tanaro Valley 330
21.3 Results and Discussion 331
21.3.1 Results of Processing 331
21.3.2 Discussion 331
21.4. Conclusions 332
21.4.1 Landslide Studies 332
21.4.2 Flood Analysis 332
Acknowledgements 333
References 333
22 Longitudinal Evaluation of the Bed Load Size and of its Mobilisation in a Gravel Bed River 335
22.1 Introduction 335
22.2 Presentation of the Drainage Basin of the River Hogne 335
22.3 Longitudinal Grain-Size Distribution 335
22.3.1 Methodology 335
22.3.2 Results 336
22.4 Mobilisation of the Bed Load 338
22.4.1 Longitudinal Estimation of the Drag Forces 338
22.4.2 Critical Parameters of Entrainment 339
22.5 Conclusions 341
References 342
23 Morphological Changes in Mountain Rivers During a Flood Event 343
23.1 Introduction 343
23.2 Mathematical Formulation 344
23.2.1 Hydraulics of Floods 344
23.2.2 Sediment Transport 345
23.3 Numerical Formulation 346
23.3.1 Hydrodynamic Model 346
23.3.2 Kinematic Model 348
23.4 Resistance to Flow 348
23.5 Stability Conditions 349
23.5.1 Stability of the Scheme 349
23.6 Applications 350
23.6.1 Verification Tests 350
23.6.2 Real Case Simulation 351
23.7 Conclusions 354
Acknowledgements 355
References 355
24 Methodological Approach in the Analysis of Two Landslides in a Geologically Complex Area: The Case of Varenna Valley (Ligury) 357
24.1 Introduction 357
24.2 A Geological and Geomorphological Outline of Varenna Valley 357
24.3 Rainfall Analysis and Return Periods Estimation 358
24.4 Landslide Analysis 360
24.4.1 Chiesino Landslide 361
24.4.2 Carpenara Landslide 362
24.5 Soils Stability and "Back Analysis" 364
24.6 Landslide Trigger 364
24.7 Conclusions 367
References 368
Index 369
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