ISBN: 3540650334
TITLE: Anthropogenic Climate Change
AUTHOR: Storch, Hans von; Flser, Gtz (Eds.)
TOC:

I The Climate System 1
1 The Global and Regional Climate System 3
by Hans von Storch
1.1 Prologue 4
1.2 The Global View: Energy Balance Models 7
1.3 The Global Atmospheric Circulation: Emergence from a State at Rest 9
1.4 The Regional Climate: Controlled by Planetary Scales 14
1.4.1 Conditional Statistical Models 18
1.4.2 The Case of Rumanian Precipitation 20
1.4.3 The Case of Short Term Event Statistics 24
1.5 Feedback of Regional Scales on Global Scales 28
1.5.1 Parameterizations 30
1.5.2 Randomized Parameterization 31
1.6 Epilogue 35
1.7 Acknowledgements 36
2 Three Dimensonal Numerical Simulation of Climate: The  Fundamentals 37
by Warren Washington
2.1 Introduction 38
2.2 Model Equations 38
2.3 Vertical Coordinate Systems 42
2.3.1 Solar Radiation 44
2.3.2 Infrared Radiation 46
2.3.3 Net Heating/Cooling Rates 46
2.3.4 Physical Processes 47
2.3.5 Precipitation and Cloud Processes 49
2.4 Surface Processes 49
2.4.1 Boundary Fluxes at the Earth's Surface 49
2.4.2 Examples of Computations of Surface Hydrology 50
2.5 Ocean Models 53
2.6 Sea Ice Models 56
2.6.1 Ice Dynamics 56
2.7 Suggestions for Interesting Climate Model Websites 58
2.8 Future Development 58
2.9 The Climate System Model and Parallel Climate Model 59
2.10 Acknowledgements 59
3 Hydrological Modeling from Local to Global Scales 61
by Eric F. Wood
3.1 Introduction 62
3.2 The Modeling Strategy Across a Range of Scales 64
3.3 Modeling Water and Energy Fluxes Across a Range of Scales 65
3.3.1 Model Testing at Small Scales 68
3.3.2 Model Testing at Medium Scales 71
3.3.3 Model Testing at Global Scales 76
3.4 Remote Sensing of Environmental Forcing Variables 76
3.5 Discussion and Summary 80
3.6 Acknowledgements 80
4 Natural Climate Variability and Concepts of Natural Climate Variability 83
by Jin-Song von Storch
4.1 Introduction: Definitions of Climate Variability 85
4.2 Estimation of Frequency-Decomposed Covariances of the Present-Day Climate 95
4.2.1 Univariate Case 96
4.2.2 Multivariate Case 100
4.3 Concepts on the Generation of Temporal Variability 114
4.3.1 Classical Hypotheses and the Concept of Multiple Equilibria: The Origin of Mean <v(t)> 115
4.3.2 The Concept of Stochastic Climate Models: The Origin of Covariance <v'(t)v'(t)^> 121
4.4 Concepts on the Generation of Spatial Variability 124
4.4.1 The General Idea 124
4.4.2 An Example: Identification of Processes Responsible for the Dominant Spatial Features of the Two Anisotropic Modes in the ECHAM1/LSG Atmosphere 125
4.5 Conclusions 133
II Climate Change 137
5 Weather Modification by Cloud Seeding - A Status Report 1989-1997
by William R. Cotton
5.1 Introduction 141
5.2 The Static Mode of Cloud Seeding 141
5.3 The Dynamic Mode of Cloud Seeding 145
5.4 Hygroscopic Seeding 150
5.5 Weather Modification Research Funding 153
5.6 Lessons Learned that the Global Climate Change Community Should Pay Attention To 153
5.6.1 Hygroscopic Seeding and the CCN-Albedo Hypothesis 154
5.6.2 The Importance of Natural Variability 154
5.6.3 The Dangers of Overselling 155
5.6.4 The Capricious Administration of Science and Technology 156
5.6.5 Scientific Credibility and Advocacy 157
5.7 Should Society Wait for Hard Scientific Evidence? 157
5.8 Acknowledgements 159
6 The Detection of Climate Change 161
by Francis W. Zwiers
6.1 Introduction 162
6.2 Basic Ideas 162
6.3 More Elaborate Ideas 170
6.3.1 Changing Natural Variability 170
6.3.2 Taking Sampling Variability Into Account 172
6.3.3 The Power of the Optimal Detector 174
6.4 Signal Patterns and Spaces 174
6.4.1 The Signal Pattern Problem 176
6.4.2 The Signal Space Problem 176
6.4.3 Attribution of Climate Change 177
6.4.4 Applying the Signal Pattern Approach 180
6.4.5 A Signal Space Application 188
6.5 Space-Time Filter Theory 192
6.5.1 The Basic Filter Theory 192
6.5.2 An Application - Detecting the Solar Signal 194
6.5.3 An Extension - More Signals 199
6.6 Detection with Pattern Similarity  Measures 199
6.7 Summary 203
III Implications 207
7 Cooperative and Non-Cooperative Multi-Actor Strategies of Optimizing Greenhouse Gas Emissions 209
by Klaus Hasselmann
PART I: THE SINGLE-ACTOR PROBLEM 211
7.1 Introduction 211
7.2 The Single-Actor SIAM Model 212
7.2.1 The Climate Model 214
7.2.2 Cost Functions 216
7.3 Optimal CO_2 Emission Paths for the Single-Actor Case 219
7.3.1 Prescribed Scenarios 220
7.3.2 Sensitivity Studies 222
7.4 Summary and Conclusions: Single-Actor Analysis 228
PART II: THE NON-COOPERATIVE MULTI-ACTOR CASE 231
7.5 The Multi-Actor Case 231
7.5.1 n Identical Non-Cooperative Actors 232
7.5.2 The Single Mitigator Problem 235
7.5.3 Trading Actors 237
7.5.4 The Two-Actor Fossil Fuel Producer-Consumer Problem 247
7.6 Summary and Conclusions: Multi-Actor Case 253
7.7 Outlook 254
7.8 Acknowledgements 256
8 "Mastering" the Global Commons 257
by Nico Stehr
8.1 Prologue 258
8.2 Overview 258
8.3 Introduction 261
8.4 The Location of Nature 263
8.5 Cimate Impact Research 265
8.6 Climate Policies as an Optimal Control Problem? 270
8.7 Linking Nature, the Economy and Society 273
8.8 Summary 278
9 Climate Science and the Transfer of Knowledge to Public and Political Realms 281
by Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch
9.1 Collegial Comments 281
9.2 Introduction 283
9.3 The Survey 284
9.4 The Sample 284
9.5 Results 286
9.6 Conclusion 320
9.7 Acknowledgements 332
References 323
Subject Index 347
END
