ISBN: 3540422234
TITLE: Environmental External Costs of Transport
AUTHOR: Friedrich, Bickel (Eds.)
TOC:

Preface V
Contents VII
List of Authors XV
1 Introduction 1
2 The Impact Pathway Methodology 5
2.1 Guiding Principles in the Development of the ExternE Methodology 5
2.2 Quantification of Impacts 7
2.3 Economic Valuation 9
2.4 Assessment of Uncertainty 9
2.5 Priority Impact Pathways 10
3 Emission Calculation 11
3.1 Road Transport 11
3.2 Rail Transport 14
3.3 Inland Shipping Transport 15
3.3.1 Steady State Operation 15
3.3.2 Non Steady State Operation 17
3.4 Aircraft Transport 18
4 Atmospheric Transport Modelling 21
4.1 Local Scale 21
4.1.1 Gaussian Dispersion Modelling 21
4.1.2 The ROADPOL Model 23
4.1.3 Ozone 24
4.2 Regional Scale 26
4.2.1 Reactive and Non-Reactive Pollutants 26
4.2.2 Ozone 27
4.3 Global Scale (Ozone) 29
4.4 Validation of Dispersion Modelling 30
5 Health Effects: Exposure-Response Functions 35
5.1 Introduction 35
5.2 Summary of Methods 35
5.3 Representation of Particles 37
5.3.1 Should E-R functions for Particles from Transport be Expressed in Terms of PM_10 or PM_2.5 or Some Other Index? 37
5.3.2 Developing E-R Functions Expressed as PM_2.5 rather than PM_10 38
5.4 The Gaseous Pollutants 38
5.4.1 Ozone 38
5.4.2 SO_2 39
5.4.3 CO 39
5.4.4 NO_2 39
5.4.5 Conversion Factors From ppb to Gravimetric Units 40
5.5 E-R Functions for a European Implementation 40
5.5.1 Can the Same Functions be Used throughout Europe, without Serious Error? 40
5.5.2 Transferring E-R Functions from North America 40
5.6 Thresholds 41
5.7 'Chronic' Mortality: Effects as Estimated from Cohort Studies 41
5.7.1 Chronic Mortality and Particles: Is there a Causal Relationship? 42
5.7.2 Choice of Study and E-R Function for Quantification 42
5.7.3 Estimating Years of Life Lost (YOLL) 43
5.7.4 Estimating Costs 44
5.8 Other E-R Functions for the Classical Pollutants 44
5.8.1 Implementation 44
5.8.2 Acute Mortality 44
5.8.3 Respiratory Hospital Admissions 45
5.8.4 Cardiovascular Hospital Admissions 45
5.8.5 Emergency Room Visits (ERVs) 45
5.8.6 Restricted Activity Days (RADs) 45
5.8.7 Acute Effects in Asthmatics 46
5.8.8 Respiratory Symptoms in the General Population 46
5.8.9 Chronic Morbidity in Adults 46
5.8.10 Chronic Morbidity in Children 46
5.9 Additivity across Health Endpoints 46
5.10 Other Pollutants, especially Carcinogens: Methodology 47
5.10.1 Introductory Remarks 47
5.10.2 Objectives of the Evaluation 47
5.10.3 Unit Risk Factors for the Occurrence of Cancer 48
5.10.4 Reliability of Scientific Evidence Underlying URFs 48
5.10.5 The Approach of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 49
5.11 Summary Evaluations of various Transport-Related Pollutants 49
5.11.1 Benzene 49
5.11.2 1,3 Butadiene 50
5.11.3 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) 50
5.11.4 Diesel Exhaust Particulates 51
5.11.5 Formaldehyde 52
5.11.6 Acetaldehyde and Other Aldehydes 52
5.11.7 Ethylene Oxide/ Ethene 52
5.11.8 MTBE (Methyl Tertiary-Butyl Ether) 53
5.11.9 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), as a Mixture 53
5.11.10 Lead 53
5.11.11 Platinum and Related Compounds 54
5.12 Some Remarks on YOLL and Latency 55
5.13 Concluding Remarks 55
6 Impacts on Building Materials 59
6.1 Degradation of Building Materials 60
6.1.1 Damage Mechanisms 60
6.1.2 Dose-Response Functions 62
6.2 Soiling of Building Materials 66
6.2.1 Soiling Mechanisms 66
6.2.2 Dose-Response Functions 67
6.3 Combination of Degradation and Soiling Effects 70
7 Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems 73
7.1 Introduction 73
7.2 Impacts Linked to Direct Effects on Ecosystem Structure 73
7.2.1 Loss of Habitat 73
7.2.2 Networks and Habitat Fragmentation 76
7.2.3 Expenditure on Protection of Semi-Natural Habitats 78
7.3 Impacts Linked to Management of the Transport System 79
7.3.1 Roadside Verges and Rail Margins 79
7.3.2 De-Icing 79
7.4 Impacts Linked to Use of the Transport System 80
7.4.1 Impacts on Semi-Natural Vegetation 81
7.4.2 Animal Mortality 85
7.5 Conclusions and Further Information 85
8 Economic Valuation, Sustainability Indicators and Alternative Assessment Techniques 87
8.1 Monetary Valuation: Mortality Risks 87
8.1.1 Background Methodology 87
8.1.2 Empirical Evidence 87
8.1.3 Measurement of the Cost Per Life Saved (CPLS) / Cost Per Life Year Saved (CPLYS) 94
8.2 Discount Rates 95
8.3 Revised Morbidity Values 97
8.3.1 The Helsinki Study 97
8.3.2 The 5-Country Study 97
8.3.3 Testing for Benefit Transfer (BT) across Countries 99
8.3.4 The Strasbourg and Kehl Study 99
8.3.5 New European Estimates of Productivity Loss and Health Services Costs 100
8.3.6 Suggested Revision of Morbidity Estimates 101
8.4 Sustainability Indicators 102
8.4.1 Introduction 102
8.4.2 Linking Strong and Weak Sustainability Indicators 103
8.4.3 Comparison of the LCA-Method ECO and Monetary Valuation Method CV 103
8.4.4 Decision Rules 104
8.5 Evaluating "Non-Marginal" Changes 105
8.5.1 Introduction 105
8.5.2 Valuing a Change in Welfare: The Case of a Single Affected Market 106
8.5.3 The Indirect Effects of Price Changes 107
8.6 General Equilibrium Analysis 109
8.6.1 Introduction 109
8.6.2 Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models 110
8.6.3 Input-Output Models 112
8.6.4 When to Use General Equilibrium Analysis 113
8.6.5 Recommendations 113
8.7 Incorporating Non-Monetised Impacts into the Decision Making Process 114
8.7.1 Introduction 114
8.7.2 Avoidance Costs 115
8.7.3 Conceptual Framework for Attribute Decision Making 116
9 Global Warming 121
9.1 Introduction 121
9.2 Models 121
9.2.1 Open Framework 121
9.2.2 FUND 1.6 122
9.2.3 FUND 2.0 123
9.3 Conventions for Valuation and Reporting 124
9.3.1 Discounting 124
9.3.2 Aggregation 125
9.4 Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous Oxide 128
9.5 Uncertainty 130
9.6 Ozone and Sulphate Aerosols 133
9.7 Summary of Damage Costs 136
9.8 Avoidance Costs 137
10 Treatment of Up- and Downstream Processes 139
10.1 Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Impact Pathway Analysis 139
10.2 Simplified Damage Estimates for LCA 140
10.3 The Uniform World Model 141
10.4 Generalisation to Secondary Pollutants 144
11 Uncertainty 147
11.1 General Remarks 147
11.2 Methodology for Estimating Uncertainties 148
11.3 Placement of the Confidence Intervals 153
11.4 Alternative Hypotheses about Causes 154
11.4.1 The Nature of Particulate Matter 154
11.4.2 A Model for Assessing the Uncertainty Due to Composition of PM 155
11.4.3 Analogies with Smoking 158
11.5 Comprehensive Uncertainty 159
12 Quantification of Total and Average Externalities (Aggregation) 161
12.1 Aggregation Issues 161
12.2 Aggregation of Impacts 163
12.3 Aggregation Methodology 163
12.3.1 Aggregating by Emissions 163
12.3.2 Aggregating by Cost per Kilometre 165
12.3.3 Discussion 165
12.4 Economic Aspects 166
12.5 Conclusions 168
13 Marginal Costs 169
13.1 Belgium 169
13.1.1 Road Transport 169
13.2 Finland 173
13.2.1 Road Transport 173
13.2.2 Rail Transport 175
13.3 France 177
13.3.1 Road Transport 177
13.3.2 Rail Transport 180
13.4 Germany 181
13.4.1 Road Transport 181
13.4.2 Rail Transport 184
13.4.3 Aircraft Transport 186
13.5 Greece 187
13.5.1 Road Transport 187
13.5.2 Marine Transport 191
13.6 The Netherlands 191
13.6.1 Road Transport 191
13.6.2 Rail Transport 194
13.6.3 Inland Shipping 195
13.6.4 Aircraft Transport 196
13.7 United Kingdom 197
13.7.1 Road Transport 197
13.7.2 Rail Transport 198
13.7.3 Aircraft Transport 200
13.7.4 Marine Transport 201
13.8 Results of Marginal Cost Case Studies 201
13.8.1 Site-Specific Results 201
13.8.2 Road Transport 206
13.8.3 Rail Transport 211
13.8.4 Other Modes 212
13.8.5 Costs Including Up- and Downstream Processes 214
14 Aggregated Costs 223
14.1 The External Costs of Road Transport in Belgium 223
14.1.1 Vehicle Statistics 223
14.1.2 Data on External Costs 226
14.1.3 Results and Conclusions 227
14.2 The External Costs of Transport in the Netherlands 228
14.2.1 Road Transport 230
14.2.2 Rail Transport 232
14.2.3 Inland Shipping 233
14.2.4 Aircraft Transport 233
14.2.5 Other Mobile Sources 234
14.2.6 Conclusions 234
14.3 The External Costs of Road Transport in the UK 235
14.3.1 Road Transport Statistics 236
14.3.2 Road Emission Factors and Damage Costs 236
14.3.3 Results 237
14.4 The External Costs of Road Transport in the Federal State of Baden-Wrttemberg, Germany 239
14.4.1 Emission Scenario 239
14.4.2 Local Damage Estimation 241
14.4.3 Local Exposure Estimates 242
14.4.4 Classification of Road Network Links 243
14.4.5 Regional Range Impacts 244
14.4.6 Results 245
14.5 Conclusions 245
15 Policy Case Studies 247
15.1 Belgium: Do Policies Cope with Transportation Trends? 247
15.1.1 The Evolution of the Total Environmental Costs in Belgium 247
15.1.2 Concluding Remarks 251
15.2 Belgium: Taxation of Transportation Fuels and External Costs per Litre of Fuel 251
15.2.1 External Costs per Litre of Petrol and Diesel 251
15.2.2 Comparing External Air Pollution Costs with Prices and Excises 254
15.3 Finland: Alternative Fuels in Helsinki City Buses 254
15.3.1 Background Data on the Helsinki City Bus Traffic 255
15.3.2 Emission Factors 257
15.3.3 Results 257
15.3.4 Comparison of Total Costs for Diesel and Natural Gas Buses 259
15.3.5 Conclusions 260
15.4 France: Electric versus Conventional Vehicles: Social Costs and Benefits 260
15.4.1 Vehicle Technologies and Costs 261
15.4.2 Emissions and Damage Costs per km 263
15.4.3 Life Cycle Costs/Benefits 264
15.4.4 Conclusions 265
15.5 Germany: Benefits of Introducing CNG-Fuelled Vehicles in the Federal State of Baden-Wrttemberg 266
15.5.1 Emission Scenarios 266
15.5.2 Implementation and Results 268
15.5.3 Concluding Remarks 269
15.6 Greece: Benefits from Introducing CNG Buses in Athens 269
15.6.1 The Public Transport Network of Athens 269
15.6.2 CNG Buses 270
15.6.3 The Environmental Cost of the Bus Network of Athens 270
15.6.4 Evaluation of the CNG Buses Use 272
15.6.5 Concluding Remarks 274
15.7 A Life Cycle Analysis of Tyres in Western Europe 274
15.8 Spain: Assessment of Environmental Externalities of the Use of Biofuels in Transport in a Mediterranean Region 278
15.8.1 Routes and Vehicle Technologies 279
15.8.2 Bioethanol Introduction Scenario 280
15.8.3 Results 280
15.9 UK: Taxation of Goods Vehicles Compared to Environmental Damage 285
15.9.1 Assessment of External Costs 285
15.9.2 Assessment of Current Fiscal Instruments and Levels 288
15.9.3 Comparison of Duty Levels and Environmental Damage 290
15.10 Summary 292
16 Summary 295
16.1 Emission Calculation 295
16.2 Dispersion Modelling 296
16.3 Exposure-Response Relationships 296
16.3.1 Impacts on Human Health 296
16.3.2 Impacts on Building Materials 297
16.3.3 Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems 297
16.4 Economic Valuation 299
16.4.1 Mortality Risks 299
16.4.2 Morbidity 300
16.4.3 Evaluating Non-Marginal Changes 300
16.4.4 Incorporating Non-Monetised Impacts into the Decision Making Process 300
16.4.5 Overview of Monetary Values Used 301
16.5 Global Warming 302
16.6 Treatment of Up- and Downstream Processes 302
16.7 Uncertainty 303
16.8 Marginal Costs of Transport 304
16.9 Aggregated Costs 308
16.10 Policy Case Studies 309
16.11 Outlook 311
References 313
END
