ISBN: 3790800511
TITLE: Technology Schocks
AUTHOR: Arnold
TOC:

1 Frameworks to capture technology shocks: an attempt to integrate current streams of thought 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.1.1 Introducing technology shocks 1
1.1.2 Characterizing technology shocks at the firm level 3
1.2 Frameworks 4
1.2.1 Innovation of product properties 5
1.2.2 Change in product's value proposition 6
1.2.3 Effects on organizations' competence 7
1.2.4 Differentiation between consumer and investment goods 10
1.2.5 An optimized framework to identify technology shocks 10
1.3 Patterns of technology shocks and the product life cycle 12
1.3.1 Literature focusing on technological change 13
1.3.2 The theory of the product life cycle (PLC) 15
1.3.3 The various phases of the PLC 16
1.3.4 Conclusion - do technology shocks cause a PLC-like pattern? 18
1.4 Implications for research 18
2 Success factors for surviving technology shocks 21
2.1 Introduction 21
2.2 Main theoretical and methodological streams 21
2.3 `When Darwin strikes': success factors for overcoming technology shocks 25
2.3.1 Company attributes prior to the shock 26
2.3.2 Strategic decisions in reaction to the shock 33
2.3.3 Operational decisions in reaction to the shock 36
2.3.4 Factors with no significant impact on success 40
2.4 Implications for research 41
3 Research gaps and methodology 43
3.1 Introduction 43
3.2 Need for additional research 43
3.2.1 Additional success factors for future empirical analysis 43
3.2.2 Designs of existing research and their limitations 45
3.2.3 Investigating complex industries 46
3.3 Goals and approach of the research process 48
3.4 The pre-tests 50
3.5 Making the questionnaire available 53
3.6 `Top management still not online' 54
3.7 The necessity of networking 55
3.8 `Going beyond the fruit fly': implications for research 56
4 The machine tool industry and the effects of technological change 59
4.1 Introduction 59
4.2 The machine tool industry after World War II 60
4.3 The availability of information about the industries' recent history 64
4.4 Location of invention, role of national research programs, and no advantage for first movers 66
4.4.1 The first years of a new technology 66
4.4.2 Machine tool manufacturers get involved - what happened to the pioneers 67
4.4.3 National programs for developing a new technology 70
4.5 Patterns and extent of technological change: between shock and evolution 72
4.5.1 Three waves of technological innovation 73
4.5.2 Innovation of product architecture 79
4.5.3 The technology's disruptive effect on companies' capabilities and the loss of competitive advantage 81
4.5.4 Change in the product's value proposition and order of magnitude improvement in value for users 85
4.5.5 Technological change in the machine tool industry and the technology shock matrix 86
4.6 The Japanese success story 89
4.7 External factors 92
4.8 The next wave - trends and future technological changes 93
4.9 Implications for an analysis of technology shocks in the machine tool industry 96
5 Descriptive analysis 99
5.1 Company data and technology shock waves 99
5.1.1 The original set of variables 99
5.1.2 Companies involved and coverage 102
5.1.3 Differentiating success and failure 104
5.1.4 The 'Zombie' phenomenon - or why counting market exits does not always work 105
5.1.5 Defining the shock waves and expanding on the characteristics of the 4-stage wave pattern 106
5.1.6 Number of firms under observation 109
5.1.7 The importance of the second shock wave 110
5.2 The manager's mind - the perceived importance of success factors for the survival of technology shocks 112
5.2.1 Importance ratings of success factors 112
5.2.2 Ranking by importance of companies' attributes 113
5.2.3 Ranking by importance of strategic decisions 114
5.2.4 Ranking by importance of operational decisions 115
5.2.5 Overall ranking with suggestion of special focus 116
5.3 Secondary findings from the analysis of importance ratings 118
5.3.1 Differences between winners and losers 118
5.3.2 Specific characteristics of the German firms - the largest national group of companies in the sample 119
5.3.3 Differences depending on the size of companies 121
5.4 Conclusion on manager ratings 122
5.5 Managing technology shocks - determinants that distinguish winners from losers 123
5.5.1 Methods to compare 'winners' and 'losers' 123
5.5.2 Strength of technology shock and effects of product types 124
5.5.3 Significant differences in attributes of 'winners' and 'losers' 125
5.5.4 Significant differences in strategic decisions of 'winners' and 'losers' 127
5.5.5 Significant differences in operative decisions of 'winners' and 'losers' 128
5.5.6 'Early' and 'late' losers 129
5.6 Summary of the descriptive analysis 132
6 Multivariate analysis 135
6.1 Introduction of scales 135
6.1.1 Correlations and scales of company attributes 136
6.1.2 Correlations and scales of strategic decisions 138
6.1.3 Correlations and scales of operative decisions 138
6.2 Differences of the scales' means between winners and losers 141
6.3 'Early' and 'late' losers 145
6.4 Determining causal relations through multivariate analysis 146
6.5 Displaying survival 148
6.6 Analyzing the determinants of survival 150
6.6.1 Multivariate analysis of the variables that represent company attributes 151
6.6.2 Multivariate analysis of the variables that represent strategic decisions 155
6.6.3 Multivariate analysis of the variables that represent operational decisions 162
6.7 A combined model of managing technology shocks 163
6.8 Summary of the multivariate results 167
7 Conclusion and outlook 173
Appendix of chapter 1 177
Appendix of chapter 3 181
Appendix of chapter 4 185
Appendix of chapter 5 193
Appendix of chapter 6 235
List of figures 243
List of tables 245
Abbreviations 249
References 251
END
