ISBN: 3540204598
TITLE: Economic Opening up and Growth in Russia
AUTHOR: Gavrilenkov
TOC:

Introduction 1
Evgeny Gavrilenkov, Paul J.J. Welfens and Ralf Wiegert
A. Investment, Financial Markets, New Economy Dynamics and Growth in Transition Countries 5
Paul JJ Welfens and Albrecht Kauffmann
1. Introduction 5
2. Fundamental Data on Eastern Europe and Russia 7
3. Growth Dynamics 14
3.1 Neoclassical Theory and New Growth Theory 14
3.2 Analyzing Growth Dynamics in a Cross Country Regression 19
3.3 Role of Financial Sector Liberalization for Economic Growth 21
3.4 New Economy Aspects of Growth 25
4. Policy Implications 28
Appendix 1: Tables 31
Appendix 2: Countries Included in Cross-Country-Regressions 49
Appendix 3: Regression Results 51
Appendix 4: List of Variables in Regressions and Data Sources 54
References 55
Comment: Natalja von Westernhagen 59
B. Growth Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Role of Financial Development 63
Markus Neimke
1. Introduction 63
2. Financial Development and Economic Growth 64
2.1 Transmission Channels of the Financial Sector 64
2.2 A Simple Endogenous Growth Model with Financial Intermediation 66
3. Financial Development in the Transition Economies 70
4. Estimation Results 75
5. Conclusions 81
References 82
Comment: Andre Jungmittag 85
C. Dynamic Causal Links between the Russian Stock Exchange and Selected International Stock Markets 91
Noer Azam Achsani and Hans Gerhard Strohe
1. Introduction 91
2. Framework of the Analysis 93
3. Variables and Data 96
4. Empirical Results 96
4.1 Results of Descriptive and Correlation Analysis 96
4.2 Results of Granger-Causality and VAR Analysis 100
5. Conclusions 108
Appendix 1 109
Appendix 2 110
Appendix 3 111
Appendix 4 A 112
Appendix 4B 114
Appendix 4C 115
References 116
Comment: Frank Bohn 117
D. Russia's Trade Relations: Structural Adjustment, Geographical Patterns and Terms of Trade 121
Olga Nosova
1. Introduction 121
2. The Basic Economic Approaches in Modern Trade Theory 122
3. Russian Foreign Trade Performance and Structure 123
4. Geographical Patterns and Terms of Foreign Trade 129
5. The Policy Conclusions 130
Appendix 132
References 134
Comment: Joachim Ahrens 135
E. The Internationalization of the Russian Gas Industry and its Export Potential 141
Christian von Hirschhausen
1. Introduction 141
2. The Role of Gas in the Russian Economy 141
2.1 The Role of Energy 141
2.2 The Gas Sector: Resources and Reserves 144
3.3 Reserve Depletion and Additions: A Stylized Scenario 146
3. The Internationalization of Gazprom 147
4. Russian Gas Exports to Europe 149
5. Conclusions 152
References 153
F. Licence or Contract - What Kind of Petroleum Fiscal System is Required for Russia's Oil Industry? 155
Gert Ziener
1. Introduction 155
2. Problems of the Oil Industry: Weak Production and Chronic Lack of Investment 155
3. Causes for the Problems 156
4. Improved Coordination of State and Private Interest is a Possible Way Out 158
5. What Kind of Fiscal System is Required for Russia's Oil Industry 159
5.1 Contractual Efficiency 159
5.2 Immunisation Against Legal and Political Risks 160
5.3 Adaptability 160
5.4 Neutrality 162
5.5 Resistance Against Falling Oil Prices 165
5.6 Budgetary Effects 165
6. Russia's Oil Legislation: Rosy Prospects for Investors? 166
References 168
G. Obstacles to Growth and Competition: The Political Economy of Corruption and Rent-seeking in Russia 169
Ralf Wiegert
1. Introduction 169
2. Transition, Competition and Efficiency 171
3. Obstacles to Competition 175
3.1 Corruption, Grabbing Hand and State Capture 175
3.2 Arrears, Tax Regime and Subsidies 179
3.3 Rent-Seeking, Transaction Costs and Efficiency 182
4. Conclusions and Policy Options 185
References 188
Comment: Cathleen Faber 191
H. Macroeconomic Situation in Russia: Growth, Investment and Capital Flows 203
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
1. Recent Trends 203
2. Fiscal Performance 207
3. Growth Potential and Capital Flight 211
4. Growth and the Chaebolization of the Russian Economy 212
References 219
Comment: Rolf Jungnickel 221
VIII Economic Opening up and Growth in Russia
I. Problems of Russia with Financial Globalization 231
Grigori Feiguine and Tatjana Sedash
1. Introduction 231
2. Globalization Scenarios - the Advantages and Deficits of Globalization in the Different Countries 232
3. Weaknesses of the Russian Financial Sector and their Influence on Financial Globalization 234
3.1 Russian Banks Transformed Savings into Investments Insufficiently 236
3.2 Insufficient Level of Crediting for Russian Industries 237
3.3 Under Liquidity of Russian Business Banks 239
3.4 Hide State Effect on Capital Flow Distribution 239
3.5 Undercompetition in the Banking Sector 239
3.6 Underdevelopment of the Security Market 239
4. Strengthening the Financial Sector as a Means to Overcome the Globalization Deficit 241
4.1 Bank System Reorganization 241
4.2 Establishment of Legal Foundation for Mortgage Development 242
4.3 Increased Capitalization in the Russian Share Market 243
References 244
Comment: Michael Vogelsang 247
J. Russia an the Threshold of the WTO: Some Problems and Options 251
Ruslan Grinberg
K. Russia and the WTO: What is at Stake? 263
Ognian N. Hishow
1. Introduction 263
2. Russia's Worries: Totally Altered GDP-Breakdown by Sectors? 263
3. The Interests of the (EU-) Partners 270
4. Paperwork versus Economics (Rules or Exchange Rate?) 272
References 274
L. The Role of Russian Regions in Economic Modernization and
Opening up: Evidence from St. Petersburg and other Regions 275
Nina Oding
1. Introduction 275
2. Investment in Russian Regions 276
3. Role and Development of St.Petersburg 278
4. Outlook and Conclusions 283
References 285
Comment: Markus Ksoll 287
List of Figures 291
List of Tables 293
List of Contributors 297
END
