##########################
##########################

This file gives the R codes for the estimations.


####################
### FRANCE  ########
####################


> FRA7508<-gam(psratio_FRA~debtratiolagged_FRA+GVar_FRA+YVar_FRA+s(time_FRA,by=debtratiolagged_FRA))
 
> summary(FRA7508)

Family: gaussian 
Link function: identity 

Formula:
psratio_FRA ~ debtratiolagged_FRA + GVar_FRA + YVar_FRA + s(time_FRA, 
    by = debtratiolagged_FRA)

Parametric coefficients:
                    Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)         -0.05537    0.01793  -3.088  0.00504 ** 
debtratiolagged_FRA  0.07323    0.02964   2.471  0.02099 *  
GVar_FRA            -0.34507    0.06225  -5.543 1.07e-05 ***
YVar_FRA             0.39583    0.07264   5.449 1.35e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

Approximate significance of smooth terms:
                                  edf Ref.df     F  p-value    
s(time_FRA):debtratiolagged_FRA 6.567  7.456 10.26 5.36e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

R-sq.(adj) =  0.857   Deviance explained = 89.6%
GCV score = 2.3578e-05  Scale est. = 1.6597e-05  n = 34

> durbin.watson(resid(FRA7508))
[1] 2.265364



###################
### GREECE   ######
###################

> GRE7609<-gam(psratio_GRE~debtratiolagged_GRE+GVar_GRE+YVar_GRE+s(time_GRE,by=debtratiolagged_GRE))

> summary(GRE7609)

Family: gaussian 
Link function: identity 

Formula:
psratio_GRE  ~ debtratiolagged _GRE  + GVar_GRE  + 
    YVar_GRE  + s(timelagged _GRE , by = debtratiolagged _GRE )

Parametric coefficients:
                         Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)              -0.01691    0.04486  -0.377 0.710047    
debtratiolagged _GRE     -0.40246    0.12568  -3.202 0.004253 ** 
GVar_GRE                 -0.39944    0.09047  -4.415 0.000237 ***
YVar_GRE                  0.50401    0.12737   3.957 0.000712 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

Approximate significance of smooth terms:
                                                  edf Ref.df     F  p-value    
s(timelagged _GRE ):debtratiolagged _GRE  9.343  9.486 19.88 1.77e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

R-sq.(adj) =  0.886   Deviance explained = 92.7%
GCV score = 0.00018467  Scale est. = 0.00011491  n = 34

durbin.watson(resid(GRE7609))
[1] 1.980233



#####################
###    IRELAND  #####
#####################

> model_IRE7508<-gam(psratio_IRE~debtratiolagged_IRE+YVar_IRE+GVar_IRE+s(time_IRE,by=debtratiolagged_IRE))

> summary(model_IRE7508)

Family: gaussian 
Link function: identity 

Formula:
psratio_IRE ~ debtratiolagged_IRE + YVar_IRE + GVar_IRE + s(time_IRE, 
    by = debtratiolagged_IRE)

Parametric coefficients:
                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)         -0.047428   0.006709  -7.069 8.92e-08 ***
debtratiolagged_IRE  0.040893   0.004822   8.480 2.41e-09 ***
YVar_IRE             0.322841   0.069413   4.651 6.69e-05 ***
GVar_IRE            -0.380761   0.050855  -7.487 2.98e-08 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

Approximate significance of smooth terms:
                                 edf Ref.df     F  p-value    
s(time_IRE):debtratiolagged_IRE   1.5    1.5 54.84 1.52e-09 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

R-sq.(adj) =  0.916   Deviance explained = 92.6%
GCV score = 0.00017112  Scale est. = 0.00014595  n = 34

> durbin.watson(resid(model_IRE7508))
[1] 1.547088



################
### ITALY  #####
################


> model_ITA7209<-gam(psratio_ITA~debtratiolagged_ITA+GVar_ITA+YVar_ITA+s(time_ITA,by=debtratiolagged_ITA))

> summary(model_ITA7209)

Family: gaussian 
Link function: identity 

Formula:
psratio_ITA ~ debtratiolagged _ITA + GVar_ITA + YVar_ITA + 
    s(time_ITA, by = debtratiolagged _ITA)

Parametric coefficients:
                        Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
(Intercept)             -0.07807    0.04399  -1.775   0.0868 .
debtratiolagged _ITA     0.01161    0.02186   0.531   0.5994  
GVar_ITA                -0.02635    0.11542  -0.228   0.8211  
YVar_ITA                 0.23818    0.11722   2.032   0.0518 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

Approximate significance of smooth terms:
                                        edf Ref.df    F  p-value    
s(time_ITA):debtratiolagged _ITA 6.545  7.737 9.89 2.39e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

R-sq.(adj) =  0.927   Deviance explained = 94.5%
GCV score = 0.00014295  Scale est. = 0.00010516  n = 38

> durbin.watson(resid(model_ITA7209))
[1] 1.817993
 



#####################
###  PORTUGAL  ######
#####################

> model_POR7709<-gam(psratio_POR~debtratiolagged_POR+GVar_POR+YVar_POR+s(time_POR,by=debtratiolagged_POR))

> summary(model_POR7709)

Family: gaussian 
Link function: identity 

Formula:
psratio_POR ~ debtratiolagged _POR + GVar_POR + YVar_POR + s(time_POR, 
    by = debtratiolagged _POR)

Parametric coefficients:
                      Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)           -0.07805    0.02096  -3.724 0.000954 ***
debtratiolagged _POR   0.07264    0.02030   3.578 0.001389 ** 
GVar_POR              -0.20529    0.06111  -3.359 0.002420 ** 
YVar_POR               0.29412    0.09919   2.965 0.006402 ** 
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

Approximate significance of smooth terms:
                                  edf Ref.df     F  p-value    
s(time_POR):debtratiolagged _POR 3.478  4.262 9.264 6.76e-05 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

R-sq.(adj) =   0.71   Deviance explained = 76.4%
GCV score = 0.00018398  Scale est. = 0.00014507  n = 33

> durbin.watson(resid(model_POR7709))
[1] 2.031185



###################
##### SPAIN  ######
###################

> model_SPA8009<-gam(psratio_SPA~debtratiolagged_SPA+GVar_SPA+YVar_SPA+s(time_SPA,by=debtratiolagged_SPA))

> summary(model_SPA8009)

Family: gaussian 
Link function: identity 

Formula:
psratio_SPA ~ debtratiolagged_SPA + GVar_SPA + YVar_SPA + s(time_SPA, 
    by = debtratiolagged_SPA)

Parametric coefficients:
                        Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
(Intercept)             -0.05263    0.03508  -1.500  0.14990   
debtratiolagged_SPA      0.21079    0.07275   2.898  0.00921 **
GVar_SPA                -0.19557    0.11339  -1.725  0.10075   
YVar_SPA                 0.63060    0.18173   3.470  0.00255 **
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

Approximate significance of smooth terms:
                                    edf Ref.df     F p-value    
s(timelagged _SPA):debtratiolagged_SPA 7.441  8.485 6.935 0.00023 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1   1 

R-sq.(adj) =  0.946   Deviance explained = 96.5%
GCV score = 8.0193e-05  Scale est. = 5.0945e-05  n = 30

> durbin.watson(resid(model_SPA8009))
[1] 2.285277




